On my website I have captured over 250 “pivots” as companies seek to survive and thrive. Discretionary consumer spending, on such things as restaurants, has fallen by 40% and hotel stays are a third of normal.”Įvery business will need to adapt how it works, from fundamental shifts in business model to new ways to serve customers. Travel on public transport and domestic flights are down by a third. “Factories are busy and the streets are no longer empty. However the missing 10% includes large chunks of everyday life. 90% recovery might not sound too bad, but analysis by The Economist says that this “could be catastrophic” for many companies. Latest IMF economic forecasts say that most economies are unlikely to recover significantly for at least 18 months (with a global -3% global contraction in 2020, broken down by -6.1% in advanced and -1.0 in emerging economies).Ĭhina is most advanced in its recovery, three months since lockdown, and returned to around 90% of its pre-Covid performance. His business is currently in the middle of clinical trials of a Covid-19 vaccine developed with Oxford University. Pascal Soriot, the French CEO of Astra Zeneca (which has just become the UK’s most valuable company, after 11 years of HSBC and 8 years of BP) believes that Spring 2021 is likely to be the earliest that a vaccine is ready. “But that all depends on how quickly we can find a vaccine”. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, recently said that he expects “at least a 24 month downturn” before most businesses get back to their pre-Covid performance. "The pandemic represents a rare but narrow window of opportunity to reflect, reimagine, and reset our world" - Professor Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum. I believe we will see a rising social conscience in business, more future-proofed portfolio- based strategies, an acceleration to digital, a humanising of technology, a shift to dematerialisation, more agile ecosystems of global and local supply and demand, a more flexible workstyle, fast projects replacing traditional jobs, a more liquid learning style … and better leaders who look forwards not back. We each have a role and a stake in solving humanity’s most pressing challenges, and also seizing its opportunities. To build stronger economies and more inclusive societies, to harness the power of our resilience and ingenuity to shape a better world of our choosing. We are faced with a choice to re-build the world as it was, or to realise the possibilities before us. And to some extent in work, education and health. Activities in which consumers are likely to change behaviour most are in travel, shopping, and socialising. Right now, we are seeing a huge unmasking of our current systems – the fragility of business and society, the consequences of urbanisation and globalisation, our dependence on technology and healthcare. 183 countries have reported Covid-19 cases, 3 billion people across the world have been under some form of lockdown, with a $2.7 trillion projected economic loss (according to Bloomberg). As the virus followed the flows of money, goods and people around the world, the networks that facilitate our modern lifestyles facilitated the pandemic. 57% of organisations were born in a downturn. The leaders of tomorrow are being created right now. How will you seize this moment to do more, to be more, to create a better future? Great leaders are made in a crisis, and innovation thrives in tough times. The leaders of the future are stepping up. The next generation of businesses are being forged. Satya Nadella describes it as a shift “from hierarchies to wirearchies”.Īs we move from survival to adjustment, from chaos to catalyst, the next normal (or abnormal) is being shaped right now. Klaus Schwab calls it the bonfire of blinkered capitalism. Dan Pink wonders if it’s a message from the future. Thanks to a small bit of contagious RNA we are all now unwilling participants in a seismic experiment that is shaking the foundations of society, technology, economics, healthcare and more. Why the Covid-19 pandemic offers us a unique opportunity to reimagine our future, to recode our business, and to build back better.
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